Weekly Hot Take - A New Chapter
3/04-7/04
Welcome, friends!
We are back with another weekly hot take. I hope everyone is having a wonderful weekend! Last week we talked about an expected pullback type of move in gold to $1923. This still hasn’t happened completely, so we can have a couple of interpretations here. For silver, we had to deal with the big downward-sloping trendline of the past few years. Let’s dive into this weekly newsletter and look at the current situation through different timing methods such as cycles, EW, and institutional prints.
For the paid members, I also want to include that I launched the private Twitter group! I want to ask all paid members to send me an email ( anaisgoldgirl@gmail.com) with their Twitter handle and a request to follow the private Twitter account @PrivateGoldGirl. Perks will include:
Junior companies I actually buy when I mention that I’m buying the dip.
I will focus on the TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of these tickers.
For the due diligence, I will cite from where I got the pick, and I suggest everyone do their own due diligence.
I will also highlight when I exit certain positions and why.
Also, I will give more general tips regarding growing an account from a rather small size to a bigger size.
On-demand requests for certain tickers for the paid members as well.
An important note: It’s not a trading service, and I’m not giving specific advice as I’m not licensed to do this. I just share how I invest/trade, and you can use this information as you please.
Let’s dive into the weekly hot take!
Precious Metals
XAUUSD
(Quarterly)
Let’s start with the most important chart. Our system from the start has been EMA’s + cycles + EW + institutional prints.
For our EMA’s and trend spotting we can see that we’ve had a stylish backtest of the EMA 20 followed by a strong reaction up. We are now above both ema’s and they are curling up so this means the trend is UP and STRONG.
For our cycle analysis it was extremely likely that we’ve just had an 8year cycle low. Now that the close of this first quarter of 2023 was the highest quarterly close ever I assume this was the right call and we are now at the forefront of multiple months of upside.
For EW we should be advancing in a wave 3. This implies that the upside should be extremely aggressive and that we will spend a lot of time in the overbought zones.
We’ve had some juicy accumulation in the prints in the past year and we’ve had some pretty big blocks on the summer lows and recently on an ICL which I will show in the weekly chart. Conclusion here is also that I sincerely believe that we have multiple months of upside ahead.
This all looks extremely bullish. However there is still one important element to keep an eye on before we start this new bullish chapter. Let’s analyse this in the weekly chart below:
(Weekly)
As mentioned above aswell and in many of the previous newsletters this move up is extremely strong and fits all the criteria of a powerful upmove in both precious metals. I’ve clearly labeled last summer lows as 8y cycle low and the low of a few weeks back as an ICL. Clean higher highs and higher lows. I remain however convinced that before we will reach $2077, that we might see $1923. I mainly say this because I think that our daily cycle is getting stretched and clearly we have some troubles with the very important $1974 area. I want to emphasize aswell that if you didn’t have a position yet in your favourite miners, NOW IS THE TIME IMO! Next big upleg after a small consolidation should pull us somewhere between $2200 and $2300. If you don’t know which miners you want or should buy, check the start of the newsletter again where it is explained how to join the private twitter group for inspiration.
XAGUSD
(Weekly)
For the weekly silver chart we can see that we are now strongly above the downward sloping trendline and this is extremely bullish. I still have my alert around $24.5-$24.7 because I think this is the squeezeline where metals could accelerate. I also think the time to position in quality silver juniors is almost running out. I will be sharing the names that I have for silver and gold in the private twitter group for paid members.
(Daily)
Look at the power of the silvermove!! Above both ema’s, getting stretched into the overbought territory. It’s almost impossible to predict here if we get more overbought and rocket to $26+ or if we will let the ema’s catch-up first. I have highlighted the importance of being positioned ahead of these moves, and I have also recommended multiple times to buy the dips. I hope I was clear ;-) .
General silver playbook for me is: EVERY dip is a buy here.
Expecting either $26 to be hit first here or first some consolidation if gold goes to $1923. Let’s watch it together.
MINERS
(GDX Weekly)
I can’t say much more then that it looks incredibly bullish and that the money inflows into gdx and other mining indexes will only accelerate from here. The obvious next resistance here is $33.33 and then $41 and $46 dollars later in this intermediate cycle.
Conclusion for the miners: make sure you are buying or have bought your favourite miners before the money inflow accelerates!! Reminder that I will be sharing what I buy in the private twitter group for the paid newsletter members.
Summary
It’s bullish. ;-)
On a sidenote: the private twitter group will be for the paid newsletter members and more tweets will follow on this topic. See this privategroup as a bonus perk of being a paid newsletter member. The main service is still the newsletter. Have a great weekend all! Remember to like and share the newsletter with your friends/connections. Retweets and likes on twitter are greatly appreciated too!
Forgive me, but What does ICL stands for?