Weekly Hot Take - Almost party time
24/04-28/04
Welcome friends!
Last week we talked about the little retrace that was due in the newsletter below:
Now, looking at the past week, we have indeed retraced a nice little bit. Everyone seems to have gone completely bearish and out of their positions. I’ve also highlighted two targets for gold and silver that haven’t been met yet. I’ll show the targets again in this weekly newsletter so that everyone can be prepared for the lowest extensions this bull leg might see.
On private Twitter, I have also shared some new entries, which I expect to heavily outperform the metals themselves. For access to the private Twitter, you have to be a paid subscriber here. Let’s dive right into this week's report.
Metals
XAUUSD
(Monthly)
On the monthly chart, we can see that we have pulled back nicely as expected, but there might still be a few extra days down before we can conclude this daily cycle low, and we should continue back up. For the monthly view, I think this candle will close nicely above both EMAs. This means that our monthly bias remains up for gold, as it has been since last summer. Let’s look at the weekly and daily cycles to better understand the lower timeframes.
(Weekly)
Same as for the monthly chart, we can see that the pullback is well underway. Here, there is an ABC type of consolidation forming, but this is even clearer in silver, which we will discuss next. We’ve had that first A leg down, then some sideways consolidation for the B and then there is still one more smack to be expected before we should go up in a very violent way to the old ATH’s or maybe above. So worst case for the bullish scenario here we get one more week down, probably in a wick fashion.
(Daily)
On the daily chart, we are at day 37 this means that there could be around 3 or 4 days extra until the next daily cycle low. The level that could be touched is $1923. After which we should get a really steep daily cycle up imo, potentially even another daily cycle after that before the weekly cycle tops. So far, there is still a lot of disbelief, so that matches perfectly with the expectations. The blue path drawn last week is being followed nicely on the gold chart. Also on the silver charts, these predictions were accurate! Let’s have a look at silver.
XAGUSD
(Monthly)
On the silver monthly chart, we see an extremely clean breakout out of the downwards sloping trendline and a solid pullback from the long standing $26 resistance. We are above our EMAs here as well, so we are in a BULLISH trend that we should follow instead of panicking and overtrading. The system remains simple. Above ema’s, we are bullish, below, we are bearish. Let’s look at the blue path on the weekly and daily candles.
(Weekly)
We have allowed the EMA’s on the weekly candles to catch up nicely. We are still not at the target, so be prepared for silver to follow gold a bit lower. But since we are in a monthly bullish trend, I wouldn’t try to catch the bottom of the pullback. If you are following me, then you should know that we are not trading the daily cycle wiggles. We are adding on the daily cycle lows, but we are not selling on the daily cycle tops. We only reduce potentially on the weekly cycle highs. So I’m just accumulating more shares of juniors as long as we are staying above our levels in the sand, which we have been highlighting. As a reminder, that was $23-$24 on the weekly view.
(Daily)
On the daily chart, we can see the extremely clear ABC correction following my blue path that we highlighted last week in the newsletter. We are deep in the daily cycle as well, so this week should be the last week of the correction for silver. After that, ladies and gentlemen, the party will start above $26. This will get hectic as we race to $28, for starters. Some miners should really start to accelerate heavily.
Summary
To keep it short this week
A little more downside expected early next week in both silver and gold
Afterwards the party will start with silver clearing $26
Add on the dips remains the strategy, and to sit because we are above the EMA’s