Weekly Hot Take - Bank Trouble
13/03-17/03
Welcome everyone
Welcome to an extremely important hot take this week! Last week we made a very important low. This was the summary of last week:
Just as summarized we saw that silver was still week and made another new low. Spot on. For gold we saw another headfake down first and then gold continued up strongly. I continue to repeat my view: Gold looks extremely strong and silver doesn’t look that strong. For gold now my next level in the sand will be $1880. Let me discuss below!
Precious Metals
XAUUSD
(Monthly)
A very STRONG chart! I’m very happy when I see this chart. We backtested the monthly EMA’s and are bouncing strongly. This is a very good sign for the bulls. Happy that we’ve been holding our juniors and I will now look to add to names that I often post on twitter. My next level of interest is the $1880 level. If we manage to move strongly above that level, then I can be sure that we’ve made an important low. But since there are rate hikes due and we also got the banking trouble going on we will have to zoom in on the weekly view right now! :
(Weekly)
On the weekly chart, we can also see that we’ve moved above both weekly EMA’s. This is a very good sign aswell. Same levels apply here, we should see a sustained upmove and green weekly candle. However this is where the trouble starts. There are some banks (don’t matter which ones) that are starting to fail, this may cause a lot of panic and a ‘run on the bank’. What usually happens in these scenarios ? Either gold will move even stronger to the upside or we will see metals tank only if the stock market crashes strongly.
(Daily)
Daily looking very good aswell! Price has to keep above the daily ema’s now and move above $1880 for the bullish case here.
XAGUSD
(Monthly)
For silver I have to stick to my methods, it is below my monthly EMA’s, not a good sign until silver gets above the ema’s again. Either silver is predicting some kind of crash in all markets (also linked to the banking trouble), or silver will correct upwards to catch upto gold. Let’s have a look at the weekly!
(Weekly)
For the weekly chart we also see that we are still below the EMA’s, this has to be interpreted as bearish as long as we don’t break back above the EMA’s. The difficult part of current situation in precious metals is that gold looks extremely bullish while silver has been very weak. So same thing here; either this is predicting a heavier crash coming in stock markets or this has to catch up with the bullishness of gold in an extremely violent way. Let’s look at the daily chart for clues.
(Daily)
Silver is trying very hard to turn back up, we’ve ran the stops below $20. I also can spot a bullish divergence on the lows. So we have to assume that there is a good setup for bulls to finally push through here. Let’s see what this weeks brings both with the banking trouble and with the rates that will be raised with either 25bps or 50bps. If silver wants to make a massive upweek, then this has to be it imo.
Summary
Gold looks strong, don’t wanna see daily ema’s fail again for another retest of $1800.
Silver looks weak on monthly and weekly timeframe.
However on the daily silver has the setup for an upweek. (Don’t want 20$ to fail again)
Excited for how it will play out, very big week with this banking crisis going on and with the rates that will be raised. Now that we know the lines in the sand we are ready for next week.