Weekly Hot Take - Breakout confirmation
30/10-3/11
Hello everyone!
Welcome everyone for another weekly hot take! We’re going for almost one year of precious metals analysis. Looking forward to the yearly milestone, which will include some nice presents for all!
Let’s have a look at the amazing progress that the metals have made and what this means for the miners. If you wish to read the full report make sure to grab either a free trial or a paid subscription!
Precious Metals
XAUUSD
(Monthly)
We can see that we broke out above the big level $1974! If we can now confirm a close on the monthly candlebodies, then we are looking at my $2300 target. You can already tell some miners that the buying frenzy is returning, even though we haven’t seen anything yet. Usually, a big buying wave and media attention only starts when we make ATHs, and that is close to happening.
(Weekly)
The power of this move is indicating to me that we are about to witness great returns on our juniors pretty soon! We’ve managed to ride a couple of big winners during the bear market consolidation, and now we will multiply these gains in the next wave in the precious metals market. Full-buy the dip mode with $1974 as support below us. For the daily chart, it basically shows the same bullish signals, so we will exclude it here. Let’s have a look at silver instead, where we are still waiting for the big power to unlock.
XAGUSD
(Monthly)
One ridiculous launchpad that is exactly what silver is! Silver needs to break back above the monthly EMAs as a first step. Afterwards, the bullflag breakout will propel the final attack at $25.77-$26,11. I expect this to coincide with gold breaking ATHs. That is when those silver juniors with a high beta will start going up 30% every day for weeks. For now, we are in a buy-and-hold mode.
(Weekly)
We had a small pullback from the weekly EMAs, which is also coinciding with the monthly EMAs, breaking both will launch a big big big move.
Let’s have a look at the miners next!
Miners & GSR
(Weekly)
On the weekly chart, we can see that gold is still outperforming silver slightly. For a true silver buying frenzy, we need this downward sloping line to hold and push the GSR downward below our blue line.
(Weekly)
This chart is the reason that many of the silver juniors are still suffering. The downward-sloping trendline has been pushing SILJ lower and lower. If we finally have that silver breakthrough above $26, then SILJ will break this line, and we will witness our portfolio's go 10X!
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