Weekly Hot Take - Buy. Hold. Sit. Compound.
4/12-8/12
Hello Friends!
Welcome everyone to another Weekly Hot Take! This week we will discuss the probabilities of breaking the ATHs and the translation into price action for Silver.
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We will cover both metals and $SILJ! Very excited for this newsletter so make sure to read it in full below:
Precious Metals
XAUUSD
(Monthly)
What a chart! Strong, dark green candles. The highest monthly close ever! The highest weekly close ever and long-term sentiment are still below zero. That is the exact cocktail that we need to see $2300 gold in a couple of weeks. Nothing is in the way now to start seeing massive volume inflows into the sector.
(Weekly)
We are seeing about 3 to 4 weekly candles up and then 1 or 2 down. That’s the pattern we’re looking for. I see 3 weekly candles up here right at resistance, so timing wise, we could make a DCL first before breaking the ATHs. On the other hand, if we break above and make a backtest of $2077, it is also possible for a DCL. This is definitely the time to be pressing the bet and not trying to outsmart by selling and re-entering.
Buy. Hold. Sit. Compound.
(Daily)
The daily cycles in this intermediate cycle are clearly right-translated and powerful. It would be typical for Wave 3 if we were to combine the two methods. Looking for a strong break above and then a backtest for the next DCL. If it were to make a DCL first, it doesn’t matter. This is where we sit.
XAGUSD
(Monthly)
The monthly picture is as clear as ever. We’ve broken out above our bullflag, and we are heading towards the massive resistance at $25.77-$26.11. Everything looks set up for us to finally break the resistance together with the ATH break in gold. A few newsletters ago, we mentioned that this break would happen similarly. That time has finally come, even if we make another quick DCL first. Let’s dive into the daily and weekly timeframes for those.
(Weekly)
The parabolic silver rise is starting, are we about to witness one more sharp rejection of the $25.77-$26.11 area? Possible. Do I think that we will break this intermediate cycle? Yes. Next level is directly $28.13 for me.
(Daily)
The very steep incline shows the power of this intermediate cycle. It also teaches us that we might have to reset short-term indicators a little bit. But as said multiple times, this is where we sit and compound our first 100%–200% before the later multiples come.
Miners
SILJ
(Weekly)
I didn’t change the downward-sloping trendline; I didn’t change the blue arrow. We are on track. The first gains are starting to come in. Volume is increasing as well, as we can see from the chart. Sit and compound is the strategy here.
Thank you!
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