Weekly Hot Take - EMAs to the rescue
13/11-17/11
Hello everyone!
Welcome everyone to another weekly hot take! This week we saw a big rejection of silver where we expected it to breakthrough. We will now have to outline certain important HARD stops to protect trading positions.
Make sure to fully read the newsletter! This also has implications for our junior portfolio!
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Precious Metals
XAUUSD
(Monthly)
The monthly has about 18 days to go before closing. This outlines two clear scenarios:
The first scenario is that we make a bullish wick off the $1923 support and try to close back above $1974 by the close of the month.
The second scenario is where we close below $1923, in which case I expect much more downside to come.
(Weekly)
The weekly shows the current situation even better. We can have a small intra-week dump to $1923, but then the bulls HAVE to step in, or we are going to start looking to break $1800 to the downside. The small additional dump can only occur intra-week, as otherwise we have a confirmed breakdown below our EMAs.
(Daily)
The daily cycle is on day 25, and any day now we want to make a DCL here before we move up in the next cycle. This is the third timeframe pointing towards a last small dump and then a turnaround, which we will have to watch like a hawk. If the bounce fails quickly, then we exit all trading positions. If it pushes through and makes new highs compared to the last daily cycle, then we stay long.
XAGUSD
(Monthly)
Same picture on the monthly silver chart: failure at the EMAs, which are pushing the prices into the supports. Either we will get a bounce and big move up, squeezing past the resistances, or we are going to lose $22 again, in which case I expect us to head towards $20 or lower.
(Weekly)
Weekly shows the rejection even more clearly, $22 HARD stop!
The strategy for the juniors will be to leave the initiated beta plays for what they are but focus more on the remaining alpha plays. I’ll highlight which names I’m investing in on private Twitter; if you are even more curious, always feel free to dm me. ;-)
Daily silver is the same again, but even uglier. The conclusion is no more beta-adding unless we break the choppy mess in this price range.
Thank you!
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