Weekly Hot Take - ETF rebalancing

5/02-9/02

Welcome all!

Hello friends, and welcome to another weekly hot take! Right when the bulls were about to give up again, some miners got slaughtered on the ETF rebalancing last week. It shows that this can also be an extremely profitable strategy to have your stink bids ready on those days. For example, there were a couple of -50% drops in relatively illiquid stocks such as $MGG.v, where one could’ve put a stink bid at 12c and almost doubled its money the next day. Now that the liquidity has dried out again, you cannot enter with a large position anymore unless you want to push up the price significantly.

The message is that you should always have your bids ready on your favourite picks, because you never know there are these weird events.

More tips to follow in the coming weeks!!

Let’s dive into the report!

Precious Metals

XAUUSD

(Monthly)

It looks like a top in the intermediate cycle is definitely in. I think we are headed towards a new ICL, probably at $1974. I think I will only be wrong about this if there is an additional layer of geopolitical issues coming. On those geopolitical issues, metals tend to rise aggressively.

(Weekly)

For the weekly view, we see that we are just about holding on to those EMAs. I’m having a hard time believing that this will just hold and push us over ATHs. However, we are yet to see the first bearish signal on the weekly chart. Overall, i’d say to look for $1974 for long positions, with a stop slightly below there.

(Daily)

On the daily gold chart, we are also above the EMAs, and we might have just made an DCL about 12 days ago. This implies that the current daily cycle might fail soon and provide us with a long opportunity around $1974.

XAGUSD

(Monthly)

As said many times, silver has looked unclear and definitely not bullish the last few weeks. $21.95 retest is coming once again with a very probable failure. I’m focusing mainly on gold for trading longs and shorts. On the junior part, we also stick to alpha picks in the gold, copper, and zinc spaces.

(Weekly)

The weekly chart of silver confirms the view presented in the monthly. We see a couple of wicks in the $21.61–$21.95 area, so a flush below this would make sense from a market-maker perspective. Lastly, the daily chart completely confirms this weak outlook, so there is no need to zoom into that timeframe.

Thank you!

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Kind regards,

Goldgirl