Weekly Hot Take - ICL
10/07-14/07
Welcome everyone!
Hello everyone, and welcome to another weekly update! Today we will shortly be discussing the progress of the current ICL formation. We managed to close above the mandatory $1923 level for gold on the weekly, so we can also start pointing out follow-up targets.
Let’s dive right into the newsletter!
Precious Metals
XAUUSD
(Monthly)
So first of all, for the monthly candles, we can see that we bounced right off the blue monthly EMA. I’m expecting this candle to close fat green if we manage to regain $1950 in the next 2 weeks. $1950 is an important target before $1974. The timing is definitely also overdue for an ICL, so I see the odds at 90% that we have just made an ICL and soon we will get a big push upwards in the metals.
If you wish to see the full report, try the 7-day trial or get a subscription with the button below:
(Weekly)
The weekly also seems to have made a local low, which is yet to be confirmed by both a swing low and a move above our blue EMA. So we are still waiting for the expected big upward surge in gold in the next 2 weeks. On the downside, we shouldn’t be seeing any weekly closes below $1923 on my (bullish) book.
(Daily)
The daily candles have confirmed the DCL already, while we are still waiting for the ICL to confirm on the weekly candles. We can see a nice slow bottom out of the potential ICL, so this makes me bullish. Targets here are the same: $1956 and then $1974.
XAGUSD
(Monthly)
The silver monthly candles are still balancing right on the EMAs as we are awaiting confirmation of the ICL here as well. I’m expecting a big move out of current lows to the $28 area as soon as the ICL is confirmed by a swing low and crossing of the EMAs on the weekly candles, which we will show in the following chart.
(Weekly)
Current lows around $22 should hold for me to stay bullish on the current ICL formation. Since the EMAs are pinched here as well, I think we have a good opportunity to confirm this ICL directly with a few strong weekly candles.
(Daily)
Here we can see that silver is trying to come out of the current low with both EMAs right up ahead. The moment we break both EMAs strongly to the upside, we can conclude this ICL, imo. The targets with silver are to break $24 first, and then we can start looking at our big resistance zone at $26 before we rush to $28 in an overshoot.
Summary
Silver should hold $22 with $24 as the first important target, followed by $26 and an overshoot to $28.
Gold is also coming out of an ICL, with strong upside expected as soon as we break the $1950 area.
DXY is failing to break $103 so that is a good sign for the metals
US10Y is acting quite strongly, so that has been putting the metals under pressure as well. We patiently wait for that to come down.