Weekly Hot Take - Inflection point

31/07-4/08

Welcome everyone!

Hello everyone, and welcome to another weekly hot take! In today’s hot take, we will discuss if the price action of last week has done any damage and look into what we can expect for the upcoming week. I hope you all are enjoying the weekly hot takes, and let’s dive right into this one!

Precious Metals

XAUUSD

(Monthly)

The monthly candles show that our clear higher high and higher low pattern is still intact. We are above the monthly EMAs as well, so there is no reason to change our bullish long-term view. Resistances ahead are $1974 and then the obvious ATH.

(Weekly)

For the weekly candles, it gets a little bit more interesting as we are right on those weekly EMAs, whereas we should be heading upwards soon here in the normal bullish stance. This can be some kind of shakeout or a precursor for an incoming cycle violation. For us to confirm a breakout upward, we need a weekly close above $1974. A weekly close below $1923, on the other hand, would be a strong sell signal for the trading positions. To be watched closely! I’m going to alert the private Twitter for the paid subscribers when we get a confirmation in either direction.

(Daily)

If there is one thing that we can notice from the daily candles, it is that there is so much sideways chop without a real direction being made. It is also interesting to note that we see incredibly high volume these last 15-20 daily candles, which might be an indication that the sellers are stepping in to end the bullish party early here around $1956 already. Given our timing, we should be heading towards a DCL right now. Afterwards, bulls will have to step back in strongly to keep the trend intact. Failing to do that, we will flip bearish.

XAGUSD

(Monthly)

The monthly candles for silver are still intact, just as the gold candles. There is no reason to switch our bullish stance, as all the indicators are bullish. Same resistances up ahead and ICL support below.

(Weekly)

The weekly candles show a nice backtest on the EMAs and should now provide support before we move upwards again. If these EMAs fail to hold, then we will have to flip bearish here. It’s still the precious metals sector, so things can change in the blink of an eye. Therefore, I’m keeping my bullish expectations here until I see a clear break of the weekly EMAs.

(Daily)

The daily silver candles show most clearly that we are below the EMAs and therefore heading towards a DCL. Let’s see how silver and gold react this week before taking any trading positions again. So far, this price action seems to me like there is a strong intervention from the bears to stop the higher high and higher low trend. It's up to the bulls to see if we can ignore the bearish pressure and move upwards after a DCL.

Summary

1. Timing band for DCLs for gold and silver

2. There is lots of bearish pressure to stop the HH and HL patterns.

3. Watch out for bearish cycle failures if the ICL’s don’t hold.

4. On the upside, silver still has $26 resistance and gold has $1974. Weekly closes above those levels should seal the deal for the bulls.

Thank you for reading the weekly hot take!! If you enjoyed the coverage this week, don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe!! Thanks a lot, and keep an eye on the private Twitter with this difficult price action.