Weekly Hot Take - One more shake
13/02-17/02
Recap of previous week
I hope you are all having a wonderful sunday! I’m very happy to see that we’re also growing as a family! We’re right now at +-300 subscribers (free and paid together). Congrats to everyone that joined! We are well positioned to tackle this volatile bullrun. Last week I highlighted with a chart that we were expecting a pullback and then a consolidation week. After the consolidation week we should then see one more smackdown. Guess what we have seen, the consolidation. Underneath you can see the unadjusted chart from previous weekly newsletter. It’s all going exactly to plan, every move!
Let me talk again now on the goal of this weekly newsletter before we take a deep dive into the further expectations for the upcoming week. The goal of the weekly newsletter is a 5-10min read every sunday to be completely on top of the moves in the precious metals market. What is so different about this newsletter? I’m trying my very best to keep it as simple as possible while also being informative. The methods that I am combining to present you these clean weekly reads are: elliot waves, cycle analysis, institutional prints and regular support and resistances. All of these techniques combined allow us to present a 5-10minute read every sunday that is based on a complex study but presented so that everyone can understand.
Last but not least, I want to highlight that there only 17 days left for the 20% off forever on the subscriptions.
Let’s have a look into the upcoming week !!!
Precious Metals
$XAUUSD (monthly)
On the monthly timeframe we can see that we’ve had our extremely strong first wave out of the lows. We then started a pullback perfectly when everyone started to become more bullish. Funny that the other newsletters with 20K+ followers were bearish the whole move up, then they got bullish while we finally started to pullback. Back to our newsletter ;-) We’re approaching the first target of $1830 gold, this might be a temporary stop. But as long as I don’t see a few more big institutional buys, I don’t think the correction is finished. The price target I have in mind is $1785-1789. When we arrive at that price I want to see some huge institutional prints and then we can assume the bottom for this pullback is in.
$XAUUSD (weekly)
On the weekly timeframe for gold we can see that we just reconnected with the weekly EMA9 !! Everything is going exactly as planned, we’ve had a slight pause here, as in a strong uptrend these ema’s provide strong support. Now I expect maybe a few more days of consolidation before one more big shakeout should occur to our monthly target of $1785ish.
$XAUUSD (Daily)
For the daily candles we can see that we’ve clearly had the necessary RSI cool-off, the daily ema’s are crossed over and pinched down, that means we’re likely to continue current pullback to lower levels. Well, which levels ? $1785 for starters. If that level matches up with big institutional prints, then it’s show time. You’ll know you have to buy the shitload out of miners if my weekly update is called ‘GO GO GO’. That’s a promise!
$XAGUSD (monthly)
For silver monthly I talked previously about how important the $22 dollar support level was, well we are here right now. I expect an undercut of the $22 level to $21.6-$21.8 atleast! Same story as for gold, we’ve had our first downleg, consolidating a little bit and then one more sharp leg down. I’m focusing on gold for potential alarming signals as silver is much more volatile (and thus harder to read).
$XAGUSD (weekly & daily)
I’m saying that i’m focusing on gold for the main direction as $silver is giving some alarming signals here with both weekly ema’s curling back down. It’s something i’m definitely keeping an eye on, but on the other hand it’s kind of expected to be a very deep pullback here. Same levels as for monthly : $21.6-$21.8 first target down. Then we want to see institutional prints coming in. If not, we go lower. Simple as that. The 0.618 fibo retrace of the big first wave is at $20.25, that is THE LINE IN THE SAND for bulls. Below the summer lows are in danger.
Summary
Consolidation week as expected
One more shakeout likely to our target of $1785.
Some alarming signals in silver, which we will follow up on. First target down $21.6-$21.8, then looking for $20.25. Depending on the size of institutional prints we know how deep we will go.
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