Welcome friends!
Hello everyone, and welcome to another episode of the weekly hot takes! Last week was a slaughter in the junior mining space, but there is some light at the end of the tunnel here. I’m seeing sufficient signals to assume that we might have upside coming in the coming 2-3 weeks. Let’s dive into the weekly report to analyze these signals.
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Precious Metals
XAUUSD
(Monthly)
The monthly wick still looks ugly, but it’s also normal that the big ATH level gave some good resistance. We are above my momentum indicators, which are the monthly EMA 20 and EMA 9, so we are still in a long-term bull trend and there is zero reason to change our stance.
(Weekly)
The weekly candles just show the big monthly rejection; since we have this many downward candles in a row, it must mean we are going into a new ICL. Since we are also at the yellow 20-week EMA, we are pretty close to bottoming out on the weekly cycle. This means that on a recapture of $1974, the odds of breaking the ATHs in the coming weekly cycle are massive. When I’m trying to be as unbiased as possible, the new weekly cycle that is coming should also hold $1923, or we are breaking the most bullish structure. But for now, since we are also above the monthly EMAs, I think we are going up after the ICL.
(Daily)
The daily chart shows that price is perfectly following the blue path that we outlined last week! (go back and check it if you don’t believe it ;-) ) If we can complete the ICL here around $1923, I’m assuming the next few daily cycles will be enormous to the upside. Same story on the downside. A decisive break below $1923, and we’re going back down. Notice how we barely changed or added any lines since last December. This means these lines are extremely valid and important. Let’s look at silver next.
XAGUSD
(Monthly)
The silver monthly candles wicked off of the EMAs! We need those lows to hold now. Except for maybe a brief wick below. Same story here; we know silver is very volatile, but as long as we are above the EMAs, we do not change our long-term bullish view.
(Weekly)
The weekly silver candles show exactly how volatile silver is. We are below the downwardly curving EMAs, so this means we ‘should’ be bearish here. But given what I see on gold and what we saw in the last ICL on silver, I think we can expect silver to give a similar strong burst upwards, just as in early March. Layering in longs here could be a good spot!
(Daily)
We are ready on a daily basis for silver to prove its worth! This is where silver ‘should’ give us a very strong pop upwards very soon. I say ‘should’ because we have a bullish stance given our analysis on the monthly and weekly charts. Also, the RSI is back to being completely oversold, just as it was back in March. Ready for fireworks!
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