Weekly Hot Take - Signs of Change

20/02-24/02

Welcome Friends!

Welcome everyone to this weekly newsletter! We’ll do a quick recap of last week, we will also go over this weeks insights for precious metals and we’ll do a recap of our succesful crypto long! Let’s dive right into it! (btw 10 days left on the 20% OFF FOREVER)

Recap of last week

Weekly Hot Take - One more shake

We talked about the consolidation that happened after the first dropdown in gold, then I told the subscribers that I was expecting more downside after the consolidation. This week we indeed got more downside. I’ve seen some nice prints on the lows of certain days so I’m assuming we’re getting ready for some relief. This is also in line with a very overdue daily cycle low in gold. So, yes we are expecting some upside for nextweek. I’ll go into more detail on the charts below!

Next-up I also want to talk about our crypto LONG that I initiated a couple of weeks back. Here is the link to the newsletter that initiated this signal:

Precious Metals - Survival of the Open Minded

Here I explained that an excellent buy-opportunity presents itself every four years. We backed this by charts and data. We initiated a long that is right now up over almost 50%!!! This was a very good call and we will be riding the uptrend right now. Slowly moving our stops to secure profits. I had some dm’s of subs that were very happy and already got their subscription fee paid back! That is exactly why I provide this service. To give balanced views, with the necessary lessons around risk management so that we can all improve.

Last but not least I want to highlight that there are only 10 day remaining on the 20% off FOREVER!! Make sure to grab the discount if you want to receive these clear and concise updates every sunday before the week starts!

Let’s dive into this weeks charts for metals and crypto!!

Precious Metals

$XAUUSD

(Monthly)

For the monthly view, I’ve explained for the past 2 weeks that I was expecting this pullback to backtest the monthly EMA’s via a wick. This means that in the coming 2 weeks there should be some further upward relief to create this wick. This lines up both with the institutional prints on the lows as with the timing of the daily cycle low which has happened last friday. So in short: coming 1-2weeks upside. For afterwards I need to see this upside developing first and then I’ll be able to tell if this was the final buying opportunity or if there is another downleg coming. I’ll keep everyone posted via the sunday weekly newsletters and via the necessary tweets if I notice anything significant.

(Weekly)

On the weekly we’ve hit the 1830 target, also we’ve backtested the weekly EMA 20. This means we might have finished our pullback already. Same gameplan as for the monthly candles is that we will want to see upside in the coming 2weeks and then we decide to let our metal positions ride or if we are going to place a stop on the lows of last friday. There are lower levels in the $1785 area, so just keep this in mind that if the strength of metals in coming 2 weeks isn’t strong, then we’ll probably go for the second area.

Sentiment wise we can see that literally everyone is bearish and no-one believes in the rally eventhough we just have rallied 21% from the lows to last highs a few weeks back. This sentiment is unseen and is the first time that sentiment is this bearish on an upmove. Shows how hated the metals are right now.

(Daily)

For the daily I’ve said that I’ve seen big prints on the lows past few days, this means that there is some accumulation happening what I expect to be a massive breakout after this shakeout. Deep in the timing band for a daily cycle low, we’ve also had a nice wick and strong candle which will most likely be another local low. So same gameplan: watch the aggressiveness of the relief out of this local low.

$XAGUSD

(Monthly)

On the monthly for silver, we’ve just had an 0.5 retrace in fibonacci terms. This is quite steep already, but not uncommon at all. Usually the pullback of a wave 2 is allowed to .618 retracement which would be 20.25, but this would be very very deep. So our final stop would be 20.25.

(Weekly & Daily)

Our unadjusted blue path to 21.60ish was slightly undercut as we reached the 0.5 fibonacci level. This likely also lined up with a daily cycle low. So combined both cycles, institutional prints on the lows for gold, I also expect a local low here to have formed last friday. The same gameplan as for gold is that we will watch the aggressiveness of the rise out of this local low. If we see great strength and power above $23, then we can conclude this pullback. However, it’s also possible that we really stretch this pullback down to the last allowed level of 20.25ish to trigger the longs. Let’s watch together coming days, now that we know the levels.

Crypto market update

I really recommend to re-read what I wrote in the last section of the newsletter linked below:

Precious Metals - Survival of the Open Minded

You will see that an amazing buying opportunity presents itself every 4 years. I highlighted from a cycles perspective that one could initiate a long with a stop at the lows. Since then we rose about 50% from the lows in about 6 WEEKS !!!

(weekly)

For the weekly cycle we can see that we had the strong rise after the call at the red line, then we also can see that the EMA 9 and EMA 20 really work on all investment vehicle to track trends. This was perfectly backtested and now we just broke the next level. The following level up is $28500. for me personally I will place stops at $18500 right now. This way we leave enough room for deep pullbacks, while also securing our first 10% of gains. We can now never again lose money in this trade! Well done for everyone that followed! Looking forward I expect us to consolidate last weeks big move a little bit and then continue upwards.

Summary

1. Gold and silver to rally from the local low of last friday.

2. Watch the strength of the rally to determine if the pullback is concluded (I’ll tweet my thoughts on the strenght)

3. Crypto trade is up close to 50% and we raise stops from breakeven to 10% profit. Congratulations !!!

Thank you all for reading this weekend newsletter again! I hope everyone is now on top of what to expect for the next week. If you liked the newsletter I really appreciate if you share it on twitter and tag me!! Also feel free to like on substack ofcourse !!

The end!