Weekly Hot Take - Similarities
18/12-22/12
Welcome friends!
Hello everyone, and welcome to another weekly hot take! This week we will be discussing the confirmed daily cycle low and the similarities to previous bull runs in the precious metals sector.
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Precious Metals
XAUUSD
(Monthly)
The month of December has been one heck of a candle! We’ve seen both our very important $1974 level and an ATH. This has destroyed both overleveraged longs and overleveraged shorts. This is often done right before a big trending move, as shown on the chart with the blue arrows. Given that we are above our EMAs, my system tells me that the momentum is up. There is no reason to change our stance as long as we are above the EMAs.
(Weekly)
The wick last week will cause a massive trending move if we manage to break the wick again. Therefore, we need to follow through on the gold price in the coming days with price action above our EMAs. Cycle-wise, we should also have made an early DCL, as stated last week. This implies that we have sufficient time to burst higher. It also implies that if we don’t see strong behaviour in the next 2 weeks, we might have to look a bit lower again. Overall, my expectation is further melt-up while everyone and their grandmothers is calling for new lows again.
(Daily)
The daily candles don’t look as strong yet. However, we can still see a very strong bounce off our previous strong resistance at $1974. This means that we should hold this level at all costs and continue upwards towards the wick of last week.
XAGUSD
(Monthly)
The silver price is still up and down. Choppy. We are to wait for the energy release when we break the $25–$26 levels I have on my chart. We are still right above our monthly EMAs, so nothing broken yet. Silver will go where gold goes.
(Weekly)
The weekly candles look bit more ugly due to last weeks nasty candle. Staying sharp is what will be needed here as there are so many conflicting signals on the lower timeframes for silver. I find it most clear to look at the monthly candles + at gold.
For the lower timeframes in silver all we can do is wait for a break of $25.77-$26.16 before the fireworks will start.
SILJ
(Weekly)
For the overal silver juniors we see a clear breakout with a nice backtest to shake out the weak hands before the trending move will start. Long and strong as long as we stay above the EMAs.
Thank you!
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Much love
GG