Weekly Hot Take - The Attack
24/07-28/07
Welcome friends!
Hello friends, and welcome to another weekly update! This week we will be discussing the attack on the all-time highs, as that is our next target. More importantly, we will also talk about all the levels that will be important on our way to unseen prices. Next to the pricing of the metals, we will also discuss our crypto longs that we opened at the perfect lows and some progress on the miner indexes.
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Precious Metals
XAUUSD
(Monthly)
The monthly candles have made the perfect backtest on the EMAs as we are trying to push through the next resistance level of $1974. Afterwards, with a monthly close above that level, I suspect we will test the $2077 area before breaking out into unknown territory. I have a long-standing fibonacci extension of the consolidation around $2300. But we will map out detailed targets as soon as we have broken out of $2077. Timing wise we should have atleast 3 months of strong upside before we will make another weekly cycle low.
Let’s now discuss the weekly and daily charts, as things get a little more complicated at certain levels. Also, crypto and the miners are discussed:
(Weekly)
The weekly candles just recognized the important $1974 weekly level as we got rejected this week. On the other hand, we are very bullish on the structure since we are back above both EMAs. For those wondering how I made the prediction of us charging back up so aggressively from below $1923, I will post a couple of thoughts I had three weeks ago:
Previous ICL went below both EMAs for a very short time aswell
The weekly RSI was at the exact same point
Timing-wise, the number of days in the previous intermediate cycle equaled the number of days in the intermediate cycle after.
We briefly broke below an important level, which is often needed to cleanse sentiment and stop losses.
My comments and Twitter feed were full of people saying that the bullmarket was done again (I won’t post all the big accounts that were complaining about manipulation again ;-) ).
Buy setup with a daily divergence
(Daily)
The daily candles made a quick first attempt at the important $1974 level and are now backtesting our daily EMAs, which I want to see as support for the current upmove. After this backtest, I expect us to break $1974 and hold it as support before we reach close to $2077.
XAGUSD
(Monthly)
On the monthly candles for silver, we can feel the power of wanting to burst through our important $26 resistance zone. As soon as this breaks, I expect a very strong and swift move towards $28ish. But we have seen from previous silver moves that silver does not hold back once it gets going.
The GSR ratio also shows us that we are close to breaking the blue line, which will indicate a strong acceleration from silver compared to gold.
(Weekly)
The weekly candles for silver show a small red consolidation candle after the previous strong weekly candle, which was also correctly predicted in the newsletter. Same story here: $26 breaks, and we will see $28 shortly after. Same pattern as with gold: a couple weeks below the EMAs for the ICL and then a quick burst back up.
(Daily)
We got quite overheated, as you can see from the RSI indicator on the daily chart. I suspect we might even see $24 before we go back up as a cool-down. If we continue straight up, I suspect we might not have the energy to break $26 already. So up to silver, how will it tackle the strong resistance ahead.
MINERS
(Weekly)
The strength of miners is totally not there yet, probably because of the sentiment of the metals. Usually, we need a big breakout in the sector first. Afterwards, the miners will catch up strongly. Noticable is that we are having a similar higher low and higher high pattern in $GDX. The next target here is to break $36 and move towards the $41.5 resistance.
CRYPTO
(Monthly)
I’m still long $ETH and $BTC since the perfect bottom call that we did in one of the first newsletters. We made this call based on the 4YR cycles that occur in the cryptomarket and allow us to position with low risk. The sky is the limit here from a positioning standpoint, as we will just move up the stops every time a new 60-day cycle low is formed.
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