Weekly Hot Take - Turbulence - ALERT!
11/09-15/09
Hello friends!
This week in the newsletter, we will be talking about the progress Silver has made in the past week and the implications for the upcoming week. Next to that, we will look at the rejection week for gold. We will also dive into the dollar chart and the miners!! READ TILL THE END, important trading information at the end!
Let’s dive straight into the report!
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Precious Metals
XAUUSD
(Monthly)
We are seeing a tough rejection continuation from the $1974 level. We are now surfing right on those monthly EMAs, which are indicating the uptrend momentum. It speaks for itself that if we break those EMAs here, on a monthly closing basis, that we are heading much lower. However if we are to continue this uptrend then this is the level where gold HAS to move higher.
(Weekly)
Gold on the weekly chart has been failing to push back above the EMAs for any longer than 2 weeks, which means that bears are still in control here unless we can regain these momentum moving averages. The weekly close below $1923, which is an important level, also shows us even more bearish strength. Overall price action is leading me to think that lower lows are coming. Meaning $1850 for starters and then potentially $1800.
(Daily)
On the daily chart, cycles are making lower highs and lower lows, which shows us the clear downtrend. The failure to regain $1923 is the final confirmation for bears. The combination of the rates rising aggressively + major miners such as CDE 0.00%↑ close to all-time lows points my gut feeling towards major trouble ahead for the metals.
This trouble might be an indication for weakness to come in general market indexes aswell. Stay alert here is what I would do, I’m building some cash positions as I have indicated before aswell. This is not a time to trade long/short, there is too much turbulence in the markets.
XAGUSD
(Monthly)
Weirdly right after the bullish monthly wick, silver got completely slaughtered again. This is not a good sign. We are right about losing the monthly EMAs here, so its the ultimate decision point heading into the fall + winter.
(Weekly)
Another sign that this market has become untradeable is the insane amount of chop on the weekly chart, above and below the EMAs. With this last weekly candle it sure looks like we are going to break $22 and head lower. (the problem is that the big parties here can shake it up again and wick us higher aswell.) In short, stay cash here till we have some more clear signals where we can enter short or long with defined risk.
(Daily)
Horrible rejection off my downwards line that I drew 2 weeks ago, also below the daily EMAs again so this means we might get that aggressive move here soon. If we break $22 silver, it’s going to get very ugly in all markets imo. Not looking bullish.
Miners + DXY
GDX
(Monthly)
Lower highs, lower lows. Down we go is the expectation. Since I don’t expect the previous low around $21,67 to break naturally, there might be a bigger crash lurking in the general markets. On the other hand a double bottom is a very probable setup here.
DXY
(Monthly)
The dollar is now breaking out bullishly out of the pennant and above the important $103,8 level. This is a very bad sign for markets. US10YR also breaking out at record speed. Something is about to crack here, and soon.
Summary
DXY and US10YR screaming higher, bad signs!
Gold and silver looking very weak on all timeframes right now.
GDX and majors miners are also looking WEAK.
I’m staying in cash on the trading positions and have now also reduced my junior mining positions.
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