Weekly Hot Take - Turning Tide

12/02-16/02

Welcome all!

Hello friends and welcome to another weekly hot take! This week we will take a deep dive into the further progression of the metals into their ICLs. After those lows, we can expect them to rally higher again.

Lets dive straight into the report! If you want to access the full report make sure to click the button below:

Precious Metals

XAUUSD

(Monthly)

On the monthly chart for gold, we can see that we are slowly reconnecting with those EMAs; our line in the sand remains $1974. This is the must-hold line for the bulls.

I do think that we should make the ICL quite soon after a last flush and then we should be headed upwards. So no reason yet to assume that $1974 will fail.

(Weekly)

I think that before we form another major ICL, we will have to breakdown below the EMAs, or $2000. Somewhere below that level, I expect us to form the ICL and enter Long again.

(Daily)

Third and last signal for the ICL is the sideways chop, which always ends with a spike in one or the other direction. Given our expectation for a intermediate cycle low I think it will be down first.

XAGUSD

(Monthly)

The silver chart with monthly candles looks ready for further downside. Since it is silver, we cannot trust or rely purely on the look of those candles. We see our strong support zone of $21.61–$21.95, which we assume to hold as long as $1974 in gold holds.

(Weekly)

It looks too early to say that the low is in. I think we can expect the same as gold: one last spike below the support zone, which is recovered immediately, and then a powerful move up.

(Daily)

While it was too early to say that the low is in, the daily chart definitely looks to be shaping up as a bottom. In a couple more days, we will be able to confirm if this current low holds and should be seen as a buy zone.

The Tide will be turning really soon!

Thank you!

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Kind regards

GG