Weekly Hot Take - Now or Never

6/03-10/03

Welcome everyone!

I want to thank all of you for reading the weekly newsletter! We will start again with a small recap of last week and then we will dive into this weeks newsletter! We will also look at the miners. To conclude there is a very useful summary at the end of the newsletter! First let’s start with a little poll :

Last week we mentioned that we were looking for a bounce:

Weekly Hot Take - The Capitulation

Finally we have gotten that bounce. However the strength so far in silver has been off. In gold on the other hand I like the structure more. I will explain exactly why gold seems more bullish here then silver + the consequences this has for our positioning in the miners.

Precious Metals

XAUUSD

(Monthly)

I’ve mentioned in the newsletter of a couple weeks back that : “In my opinion we’ll reconnect with the EMA’s via a monthly wick.” -

Weekly Hot Take - The Opportunity

This wick was much smaller then thought, but we indeed reconnected with the monthly ema’s. We bounced right off of them and are right now starting a nice curl up. When we will zoom in on the daily timeframe you can clearly see that we’ve conquered back the daily ema’s. It’s important for me that the monthly ema’s hold now or I think we might see the summer lows of last year again. Let’s have a look now at those smaller timeframes!!!

(Weekly)

To keep this bullish leg raging, we want a recapture of both ema’s to happen here, followed by strong continuation up. This continuation should then be supported by both my weekly ema’s. Then we can assume that we’re going back up + it will then also be likely that we take out $1960 area. After the $1960 area we will go to the big highs of $2070! This will be the ultimate test. I’m not completely sure however that this was it for the pullback in gold. This is because the weekly cycle for gold should still be down for a few more weeks. On the other hand, we’ve seen some quite juicy prints on the lows so the chance is here for bulls. Let’s take a deeper look on the daily candles.

(Daily)

On the daily candles we can see that we have recaptured the EMA 9 earlier but that we are had a battle right with the EMA 20. If the bulls win this battle here then we can start riding the trend again up, supported by the EMA’s! A daily cycle low has clearly been set here at $1800 zone. If we break this $1800 zone then we will have another scary and deep leg down. Otherwise we will be back to riding the uptrend. For our junior positions I’m still fully long and added to the juniors on this pullback as planned weeks ago. I will however be cutting my junior positions when we break the $1780-$1800 zone. I talk about a ‘zone’ because they can always wick it below $1800 and then back up. We would get stopped out if we use it as hard stop and that is not the goal.

XAGUSD

(Monthly)

The silver monthly candles have sliced through our must hold zone. This adds to the bear argument. I am however willing to give silver the benefit of the doubt as long as the gold structure has bottomed. As explained in the gold section we do not want a break below $1780-$1800 or I think the lows of last summer will be retested in both gold and silver! Let check out the weekly and daily right now!

(Weekly)

Same thing for the weekly candles. We have sliced through the important momentum EMA’s. This means that the momentum is down. This also fits with the weekly cycle being down. In general silver shouldn’t then break back above 22$. So silver, definitely on the shorter timeframes is bearish. However this conflicts a lot with gold. Gold has a chance here on the daily timeframe to prove that upside is possible. But if we only had to look at silver, then this chart is bearish. I’m watching gold to reduce position sizes if we break the important zone down. If silver magically pulls a big upmove above $22, then we can be bullish again.

(Daily)

On the daily we are really oversold. Also here we have a daily cycle low in place. This means that the upside since that low should be very strong if the upside was still in play. We can clearly see that the daily candles have lots of trouble by getting back above the blue EMA 9. This is not a good sign. So goal for bulls break above $22 and HOLD !! Otherwise a break of current low is likely and then we are headed towards the lows of last summer.

MINERS

(Daily)

The miners had a nice daily cycle low and are progressing to the upside out of the oversold conditions. If we can regain the yellow EMA 20, just as gold spot, then we can safely assume that the uptrend has regained in gold and gdx.

SUMMARY!!

First two bullet points are in favor of the bulls here and the last 3 are in favor of the bears. This declares the dramatic title of the newsletter ;-) ! Bulls need to show up here or last summer lows are inbound.

1. Gold confirmed the daily cycle low.

2. Gold bulls now need to regain the EMA20 + then build up momentum again supported by both EMA’s.

3. If the $1800 gold level gives away —> very likely that we retest the lows of last summer.

4. The weekly cycle is still bearish (cycle analysis)

5. Silver looks bearish aswell (broke weekly and monthly ema’s down)

Thank you!

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